Olympic Curling Trials: Can Anyone Beat Homan

Here’s Part 2 of the Canadian Olympic Trials preview, focusing on the rest of the women’s field – the Contenders, Challengers and Underdogs. Part 1 is the preamble and The Favourite.

The men’s preview will be published shortly here at The Curling News.

Contenders

Kerri Einarson (+800) was a favourite in 2021, having won the previous two Scotties. Their quadrennial record against the field then (40-29) was worse than now (40-22).

Halifax comes mere months after Shannon Birchard returned to the squad which means yet another “new” lineup (it all started with this, you will recall). Einarson ran the table at the Saville Shootout in early September but have performed in the middle of the pack most of this season. Their only playoff appearance in the Grand Slams was a loss to Homan at Nisku’s Tour Challenge.

With Homan’s recent dominance, some teams in this field can rationalize they are playing for second place, and building experience for future opportunity. Kerri already has experience and belief in her Gimli team’s abilities. Team Einarson was one down with hammer (2-1) at the fifth end break in February’s Tournament of Hearts final, then Homan stole four points over the remaining ends to secure victory.

After four Scotties titles and six Grand Slam wins, if Einarson reaches the finals – you must believe they have a chance, right?

PF/G = 6.66, PA/G = 5.29

Predicted Wins = 5.2

It’s debatable Team Kaitlyn Lawes (+1350) is a Contender. As mentioned in my opening chapter, the Manitobans have defeated Homan only once – over three years ago – and have lost eight times since.

The positives? They have managed to reach the final end against Rachel in all but one of those games. They are 5-10 against Einarson but have won two of their last three matchups. Against teams other than Homan and Einarson this quadrennial, their won/loss record is 15-7.

Third Selena Njegovan and lead Kristin Gordon can draw from their silver experience four years ago with Tracey Fleury. Lawes and second Jocelyn Peterman know what it takes, having been on the Jones squad that defeated their current teammates in Saskatoon. If they can reach the final series the feeling might be familiar.

One final championship game upset seems plausible but it’s uncertain their experience can translate into two wins against the current version of Team Homan.

PF/G = 5.61, PA/G = 5.70

Predicted Wins = 3.9

Challengers

Given Homan’s dominance, a case could be made that all of the remaining teams (and previous two mentioned) are actually Underdogs.

One challenge with the women’s pool of data is the limited games between opponents. The top three boast more time spent on the Grand Slam circuit while data from the remaining teams are heavily weighted in regional events and appearances at the Scotties. For example, Homan has only played 22 games against these five teams in the past three and a half seasons (and lost just once), while battling Einarson and Lawes 26 times.

Team Christina Black (+4000) is 3-15 against the previous three teams. Several losses have been high scoring (usually for their opponent) and are influencing the predicted wins calculation. I would suggest they are closer to 3 predicted wins than the calculation of 2.3 listed below.

Black has skipped Nova Scotia in three of the last four Scotties and her Tier 2 victory at the 2024 Tour Challenge launched the squad into the Slams (they then qualified at the 2024 National but failed to qualify at this season’s Masters and Tour).

Perhaps losing against the best competition in the world will provide the experience they need to capture a playoff berth. I would not be a surprised if the local crowd helped boost them to 4 or 5 wins, but a trip to Italy seems unlikely.

PF/G = 6.21, PA/G = 8.79

Predicted Wins = 2.3

Team Selena Sturmay (+4000) earned their spot through the Pre-Trials last month. It was a strong performance during the round robin; an early loss to reigning Canadian Junior champion Myla Plett was a setback but the extra-end loss to Danielle Inglis came on the final draw, after their spot in the finals was secured.

Third Danielle Schmiemann experienced the Trials in 2021 as third for Kelsey Rocque, finishing 3-5.

Three wins (and only one loss) against Lawes is impressive, but Team Sturmay will have to improve from their 1-10 record against Homan and Einarson to have any hope.

PF/G = 5.81, PA/G = 6.81

Predicted Wins = 3.2

Team Corryn Brown (+4500) is 1-7 against the top three teams, the single victory coming against Einarson at September’s PointsBet Invitational. This team finished 6-2 at the 2025 Scotties and lost to Nova Scotia’s Black in their playoff appearance.

Oddsmakers are weighing their recent form, including the finals appearance at the PointsBet and a win at the SaskTour event in Martensville. The predicted wins of 3.7 is inflated, however, from playing only eight games against the top three teams.

PF/G = 5.75, PA/G = 6.06

Predicted Wins = 3.7

Underdogs

Team Kayla Skrlik (+9500) has one win (against Sayaka Yoshimura at the AMJ Masters) in two Grand Slams this season and they produced a donut at the PointsBet, going 0-4. In fact, they had failed to qualify in every event this fall until winning the recent Clarion Cup.

The Calgary squad will have to return to their form of last season to have any hope of being in the mix in Halifax.

PF/G = 5.40, PA/G = 6.65

Predicted Wins = 2.9

Team Kate Cameron (+9500) added Briane Harris at third for this season. Kate and second Taylor McDonald were part of the Laura Walker team that was one game short of a Trials tiebreaker four years ago.

Cameron reached the semifinal of the 2024 Scotties as a skip. There is experience on this team and the oddsmakers might be missing something with their prediction – yes, they’re only 2-14 against the top three teams but 11-9 against the rest of the field, with most of those games coming before the Harris lineup addition.